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Analyses

analizy

Russia and the Turkish operation in Afrin

01.02.2018
In January 2018 Turkish armed forces commenced military operation in north-western Syria. This action had been cleared with Moscow and was aimed at Kurdish political movements that reside in enclaves in northern Syria. From the Russian point of view it is a part of wider effort to pacify this area and strengthen the foothold in the Levant. Possible deterioration of the relations between Ankara and Washington, which supports Kurds, is also considered beneficial to the Kremlin. All this demonstrates however that the Syrian civil war is far from conclusion and so is Russian intervention there
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Future of Civil Defense in Poland

19.01.2018
This analysis takes up issues of civil defense in Poland in relation to the binding national and international legal norms. Civil defense in Poland has not functioned well, which was shown in Supreme Audit Office’s assessment in 2011. Therefore, there is a need to develop new rules for civil defense responding to the contemporary Polish reality, taking into account the existing risks, state structures, democratic rules and free-market determinants, in order to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the national security system.
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The Catalan crisis: Catalonia is electing regional authorities

21.12.2017
On Thursday, 21 December 2017, Catalonia will held fresh regional elections. The upcoming elections were called by Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, after he had dismissed the former pro-secessionist Catalan government in the aftermath of Catalonia’s self-determination referendum and following the unilateral declaration of independence of October 2017. Early polls indicate that the pro-independence party (ERC) and anti-separatist party (CS) are gaining similar support. Therefore, the final choice of the Catalan people would serve as an expression of society’s attitudes towards the political future of Catalonia.
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The COP23 Climate Change Summit: Will Bonn be remembered?

27.11.2017
From 6-17 November 2017 the city of Bonn hosted the 23rdsession of the Conference of the Parties (COP23) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which remains the most politically significant international forum for global climate policy. The implementation of the Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016 as the first legally binding global climate deal, has been placed at the core of agenda in Bonn. However, the outcomes of the conference are relatively limited in scope and contents. The next conference - COP24 - will be hosted by the city of Katowice in 2018 and is expected to reach key milestones in pushing forward the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
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Boko Haram - a part of the terrorist network in Central Africa

27.11.2017
Boko Haram ("Western Education is Forbidden"), established in the mid-1990's in the north-eastern Nigeria initially as a sunni-islamic religious group, became in the following years one of the most ruthless and non-compromised armed terrorist units in Central Africa. Using kidnapping for ransom, suicide bombings, robbery, murder and jihadist propaganda, it has been transformed from a local guerrilla group into an international terrorist network asswociated with the Islamic State, seeking to establish an "Islamic State in West Africa Province". Boko Haram’s impact on regional security has been crucial mainly because of its disintegrating influence on the Nigerian state, an important worldwide oil supplier and holder of the status of a hub connecting the Islamic State with Al Qaeda in Africa.
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