Forecasting the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war is like reading tea leaves. Nevertheless, it is worth doing it not only to practice assessing new phenomena but also to contribute to the variety of explanations. Thus, in our opinion, there is no end to this war in sight at the moment. A long-term armistice is unlikely, as both sides believe that they have reasons to continue fighting. The “Korean-style” semi-permanent solution, a sort of well-established peace without a permanent solution, is more likely. Still, it would require Russia to redefine its definition of victory, which represents a very distant possibility. The same goes for any lasting political solution. All in all, any long-term cessation of hostilities would require one or both sides to redefine their respective policies, which seems unlikely in the near term.Read More o M. Czajkowski - The Prospect for the Russo-Ukrainian War – Tea Leaf Reading
B. Kosowski - The impact of inspections of protective structures and shelters on improving the safety of society in the face of bomb attacks
This commentary concerns the recent activities related to the operational inspection of shelters and temporary hiding places for the population of Poland. This is the result of the ongoing war in the immediate vicinity of Poland’s borders and the possibility of the proliferation of the armed conflict to other Eastern European countries. In view of the stagnation in the field of systemic solutions to the discussed problem, it is necessary to adopt a concept and directions of the action concerning the regulation of the issues covered by this commentary.Read More o B. Kosowski - The impact of inspections of protective structures and shelters on improving the safety of society in the face of bomb attacks
Serdecznie zapraszamy pracowników naukowych, doktorantów oraz studentów do wzięcia udziału w IV Jagiellońskiej Konferencji bezpieczeństwa „Środowisko bezpieczeństwa - bezpieczeństwo środowiska?", która odbędzie się w dniach 28-29 września 2022 r. na Uniwersytecie Jagiellońskim w KrakowieRead More o IV Jagiellońska Konferencja Bezpieczeństwa „Środowisko bezpieczeństwa - bezpieczeństwo środowiska?"
The war in Ukraine, which has been going on for nearly three months, has multidimensional consequences, not only for the parties to the conflict. Considering the significant dependence of some European countries on Russian energy resources, a serious problem arises with regard to their energy security. Unfortunately, it was only war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Russian aggressor in Ukraine that made European decision-makers aware of the scale of threats to regional stability. They exposed weak foundations of the political and economic relations with the Putin regime, based largely on lucrative economic interests. Certainly, it is not only the Russians who benefit from the sale of energy resources, due to the fact that the economic development of many countries hinges on the imported oil or gas. Nevertheless, an energy "symbiosis" which has been functioning for many decades has relaxed vigilance of some countries. Germany is one of them is - the fourth economy in the world and a key member state of the European Union.Read More o W. Hebda - Germany’s energy dilemma and what’s next with the Russian gas
The commentary refers to contemporary security conditions directly related to the civilian population facing a threat of war. The poor condition of the Civil Defense in Poland weakens significantly the state in the event of an attack by an aggressor, such as the currently unpredictable Russia. The author expresses the view that in the situation of the most dangerous crisis, which is the war in the immediate vicinity of our borders and the possibility of that armed conflict to spread over other countries of Eastern Europe, it is necessary to modify and significantly improve the functioning of civil defense. According to the principle "if you want peace, prepare to war", it becomes necessary to put the special emphasis on financing civil defense, training society and ensuring protective buildings and shelters for civilians exposed to possible missile attacks. It is hard to assume that the problems in the functioning of civil defense in Poland go unnoticed by secret services of neighboring countries, which thus consider the civil defense system as a weak point of resistance in the event of an aggression.Read More o B. Kosowski - Civil defense as an effective tool of response to an aggressor