Forecasting the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war is like reading tea leaves. Nevertheless, it is worth doing it not only to practice assessing new phenomena but also to contribute to the variety of explanations. Thus, in our opinion, there is no end to this war in sight at the moment. A long-term armistice is unlikely, as both sides believe that they have reasons to continue fighting. The “Korean-style” semi-permanent solution, a sort of well-established peace without a permanent solution, is more likely. Still, it would require Russia to redefine its definition of victory, which represents a very distant possibility. The same goes for any lasting political solution. All in all, any long-term cessation of hostilities would require one or both sides to redefine their respective policies, which seems unlikely in the near term.
Komentarz KBN nr 13 (102) / 2022
20 listopada 2022 r.
Forecasting the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war is like reading tea leaves. Nevertheless, it is worth doing it not only to practice assessing new phenomena but also to contribute to the variety of explanations. Thus, in our opinion, there is no end to this war in sight at the moment. A long-term armistice is unlikely, as both sides believe that they have reasons to continue fighting. The “Korean-style” semi-permanent solution, a sort of well-established peace without a permanent solution, is more likely. Still, it would require Russia to redefine its definition of victory, which represents a very distant possibility. The same goes for any lasting political solution. All in all, any long-term cessation of hostilities would require one or both sides to redefine their respective policies, which seems unlikely in the near term.
Na zdjęciu: Żołnierze ukraińscy przy zdobytym rosyjskim czołgu T-62M, 14 września 2022 r.
Źródło ilustracji: Twitter.