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M. Czajkowski - The Syrian-Turkish Conflict and its Implications for Russia – A Follow-Up
23.03.2020
At the beginning of February 2020, the Turkish Armed Forces were deployed in the Syrian Idlib province to stop the advancing Syrian Arab Army from conquering the last significant rebel-held enclave in Syria. In this piece we review our predictions regarding this situation which we have published on February 15th, 2020.
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D. Dziwisz - The new strategy of U.S. activities in cyberspace – potential consequences of the „defend forward”
17.03.2020
In an interview with 13ABC television, Donald Trump said that the USA is “better at cyber than anybody else in the world", but until now they were not really using that power. He also announced that if the USA were attacked, the answer would be very painful. This and other similar statements by the American president are in line with the new vision of the United States Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) of 2018 and the Pentagon’s “strategy of persistent engagement” which is supported by the “defend forward” operational concept.
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A. Tyszkiewicz - France is poised to reinforce its military presence in Sahel
12.03.2020
President Macron's decision on the reinforcement of the French military presence in Sahel focused on deploying a unit of 220 soldiers in support of the anti-terrorist, multi-national operation "Barkhane". It replaced the operation "Serval" provoked in 2013 by a series of centrifugal activities by the Tuareg, channeling their efforts to a secession from the Malian state, and Islamic fundamentalist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. As a leader of the stabilization process in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Region, widely known as Western Africa, France aims reinforcing local efforts taken mainly by the G5 Sahel countries, as well as by the UN and the UE.
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M. Czajkowski - The Syrian-Turkish Conflictand its Implications for Russia
17.02.2020
The Syrian government’s offensive against the last important rebel stronghold in the Idlib province has resulted in skirmishes between the Turkish Armed Forces (Türk Silahlı Kuvvetleri – TSK) present in the area and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) with its affiliated forces. The situation on the ground is still in development, but we believe that it may contribute to important changes in the landscape of the Syrian war, which most probably is drawing to the end of its current phase. We may also be witnessing a pivotal point of the Russian intervention in Syria. This commentary is intendedto briefly assess the current events and present some possible future scenarios of the conflict, with special attention to the role of Russia.
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A. Nyzio - On the fusion of special services
22.01.2020
The post-election period in the Polish internal security apparatus was marked by the Marian Banaś affair. This case once again illustrated how leaky, or entirely absent, security procedures are, and that the coordination of specialized institutions remains seriously flawed. The weakness of intelligence services prompted a further discussion concerning the necessity of reform. Some sort of merger is one of the options under consideration.
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