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A. Nyzio - Surveillance in Poland A.D. 2019
31.10.2020
Each year in summer the Polish Ministry of Justice and the Public Prosecutor General, as well as telecommunication and software companies, publish information concerning surveillance in Poland in the previous year. It is worth taking a closer look at statistics on obtaining user data, wiretapping, and correspondence control, to evaluate and illustrate forms, scale and trends of surveillance. As always with the classified activities carried out by the security apparatus, the information is scarce and often vague, and each incomplete answer is usually followed by a series of further questions and doubts.
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M. Kolaszyński - A Super-Ministry? The establishment of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs
21.10.2020
A new institution in the Polish national security system established on the 9th of October 2020 has aroused interest mostly due to its chairman Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the ruling coalition. However, the legal status of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs does not predestine this body to perform a key role in the state’s security governance and defense.
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B. Kosowski - Consequential threats as a cause of delayed and distant crises
12.10.2020
The effects of a crisis situation are usually taken into consideration from the perspective of primary threats. In practice, no assessment of losses is done in relation to threats that arise as a result of the so-called domino effect, and take the form of consequential threats. The failure to evaluate the consequences of those threats results from the fact that they emerge as a follow-up to an event caused by the original threat. However, attention should be paid to the fact that consequential threats often result in delayed or distant crisis situations in various areas of the state's performance, and their effects are then considered without linking them to an original event.
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P. Orłowski - COVID-19 and NATO’s Eastern Flank
06.05.2020
The importance of the COVID-19 pandemic is not without a significant impact on the capabilities of NATO forces on the Eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. The scale of that phenomenon was noticeable in in regard to the modification of the scenario and orgnisation of the largest exercise in the Alliance planned for 2020, i.e. DEFENDER-Europe 2020. In this commentary the author aims to answer the question, how much the pandemic influenced the implementation of the exercise itself, what impact may it have on the Alliance's real capabilities and what consequences may this situation have for Poland's security.
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M. Czajkowski - Coronavirus in the Middle East – Waiting for Armageddon
16.04.2020
It is a challenging task to predict the spread of the novel coronavirus, as most of the experts underscore that its characteristics are, to a great extent new. Specifically, it is believed that this pathogen is substantially more infectious than a “normal’ flu strain. However, judging from the current information regarding the course of the pandemic in various countries, we may try to predict its trajectory in areas which have so far been less severely affected. In the Middle East, according to the official data available, the spread of Covid-19 is relatively low. Other than a high rate of infections in Iran and Turkey, the worst-hit country seems to be Saudi Arabia with only 5,862 people infected as of April 15th, 2020. But this is probably just the beginning of the outbreak in the region, and we may expect to see a catastrophic epidemic which will likely erupt in the region. It will also have severe ramifications for regional security. This commentary explores some of the worst-case scenarios. For this purpose, we assume that the Covid-19 will spread rapidly in the Middle East and affect millions of people.
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